Revenue Management, category optimization, and the role of AI: 5 mid-term predictions for CPG commercial teams
A double interview with David Morton and John Keating, with key takeaways and lessons learned from our winter North American events
In CPG, commercial conversations are changing shape fast. Category Management and Revenue Growth Management (RGM) processes are no longer tidy neighbors with a polite fence between them.
At the same time, AI technology has moved from “innovation theater” (high-profile pilots and demos that don’t consistently translate into real in-market impact) to an everyday feature expectation. When it comes to solutions, enabling management and optimization of the commercial dimension, the new competitive edge isn’t who produces the smartest insights, but who can turn those insights into in-market execution.
After the NRF Big Show in January and the last CMA conference we asked David Morton, Strategic Client Partner at XTEL, and John Keating, Enterprise Account Director, to share what they found interesting, innovative, and relevant that was discussed during the events. These perspectives come from recent conversations with CPG commercial leaders across North America. This is a double interview to capture what’s changing – and what’s likely next.
Key Takeaways:
Category management, category optimization and RGM are converging into one commercial system.
Execution (not insights generation) is the new competitive edge, and retailer-ready storytelling matters.
AI will accelerate decisions, but governance will determine whether speed creates value or chaos.
Prediction #1: Category management, category optimization, and RGM will merge into Revenue Management – one connected commercial system
Q: What’s your clearest 12–18-month prediction about how Category management and RGM will evolve?
David Morton:
“The pace of change, and the expectation for change, is accelerating. We’re heading toward a world where optimization can cover all commercial levers (promo, pricing, trade terms, and assortment). That naturally puts pressure on the way company teams are structured today, because assortment decisions and price/promo decisions often sit in distinct teams with distinct processes.”
John Keating:
“What stands out most is how blurred the lines have become between ‘category management’ and ‘RGM.’ I spoke with multiple leaders whose titles and scopes now explicitly span both. You see category leaders moving into sales, assortment-focused roles getting pulled into RGM, and even former category leaders returning from Finance back into the Category/RGM orbit.”
> What this means for CPGs over the next 12–18 months
Over the next 12–18 months, the direction is clear: Category and RGM will move closer together as more teams test connected ways of planning across assortment, pricing, promotion, mix, and trade investment. Rather than “one system overnight,” expect shared priorities, clearer trade-offs, and tighter coordination across levers—supporting sharper value/volume decisions and more consistent in-market execution.
Prediction #2: “Lone insights” are the past; execution will be the true differentiator
Q: Where are you seeing the biggest shift in what leaders want from commercial teams and tools?
DM:
“Insights without execution have no impact on commercial outcomes. When it comes to tools, one vendor can argue that their analytics are better than the competitive set, but that’s a hard fight to win, and it won’t deliver customers real fuel for growth. XTEL clients will win because they can rely on an end-to-end platform and approach that connects insights to shelf execution. Partnering with a vendor that understands how to win with retailers is a guarantee for superior customer outcomes.”
JK:
“There was a clear shift from insight generation to activation. The question I was asked, again and again, was: ‘How do you help me actually put the insight into the market?’ A common friction point is the human factor on the retailer side. Getting attention, earning belief, and driving action still takes work, work that commercial teams should be able to dedicate time to. And be supported in doing so by the tools.”
> What this means
Winners won’t be the teams with the most dashboards, but the teams that shorten the distance between a recommendation and a real-world change - on shelf, in aisle, at end caps, at checkout.
Prediction #3: Retailer-ready storytelling will become a core commercial capability (not a “nice to have”)
Q: What will “better execution” look like in practice? What capabilities will matter most?
DM:
“If we’re moving toward full mix optimization, then the conversation with the client, and with retailers, must become sharper. Better analytics alone won’t carry the day. The ability to land decisions and drive outcomes is what will really matter.”
JK:
“The most effective teams are investing in stronger visual storytelling: virtual shelves, ‘perfect shelf’ renderings beyond planograms, videos that show placement across the storefront, end caps, aisle, checkout—and even VR for collaboration.”
> What this means
Expect CPGs to invest (and vendors to deliver against) greater emphasis on capabilities that accelerate retailer-ready narratives and improve speed-to-execution. Analytics will need to partner with a compelling commercial story because unimplemented recommendations don’t change outcomes, so activation capability matters.
Prediction #4: AI will raise expectations for “natural language planning”, but it’s data alignment that will make it or break it
Q: How is AI changing what clients believe should be possible in commercial decision-making?
DM:
“The scale adoption of free-to-use generative AI for domestic use has increased curiosity about what can and should be available in the commercial world. For example, clients are recognizing that AI should be able to solve for data management alignment and provision.
My qualified expectation is that we’ll see rapid improvements in the ability to ask natural language business questions and be presented with coherent commercial plans covering assortment, price, and promotion against predefined goals.”
JK:
“AI is part of the excitement (and anxiety) leaders are navigating today. In uncertain periods, the best teams use AI as an accelerant, not a distraction, to shorten the cycle from insight to decision to action.”
> What this means
The bar is rising toward “ask a question, get a plan.” But the hidden constraint won’t be the interface. It will be whether organizations have the data foundations and alignment to produce answers that are consistent, explainable, and actionable.
Prediction #5: As multi-lever optimization grows, governance will become a competitive advantage
Q: As scenario generation gets easier, what needs to change inside CPG organizations to keep decisions coherent and executable?
DM:
“Governance will be key. If agents can generate scenarios across all commercial levers, it forces a tougher question inside client organizations: who makes the trade-offs, and how? Even as Category and Revenue Management continue to blur, most companies still run distinct teams and processes: one focused on assortment, and another on pricing and promotion. In a world of full mix optimization at the touch of a button, clients will need a clearer way to decide where to invest: assortment versus promotions versus secondary locations, and more. More broadly, it raises questions about skills, competencies, and organization design for an agentic future.”
JK:
“Uncertainty is the defining backdrop. Leaders are navigating organizational disruption, Gen Z behavior shifts, AI-driven excitement and anxiety, and health and wellness forces reshaping consumption. In uncertain periods, the best teams find anchors—shared truths that don’t change. Consumers still value quality, brands still need clarity, and teams still need steady leadership.”
> What this means
As optimization becomes easier to generate, the differentiator will shift to decision rights, prioritization, and governance. Companies that create clear rules for trade-offs—and build the skills and operating model to act on them—will out-execute those that simply generate more scenarios.
What to do now: 3 practical moves
Unify the commercial agenda across levers
Plan holistically across Category, RGM, and Sales. If assortment, price, promo, mix, and trade live in separate calendars and owners, you’re designing inconsistency into the system and not reaping the benefits of true Revenue Management.
Build “retailer-ready activation” into the workflow
Don’t treat storytelling and visualization as outputs at the end. Make them part of the operating model: virtual shelf views, perfect shelf standards, and clear activation packs that help teams win belief and attention.
Define governance before the tools get smarter
If AI can generate scenarios quickly, you need clarity on who decides, what gets optimized, what constraints apply, and how trade-offs are resolved. Governance is what keeps speed from turning into chaos.
Closing thoughts
The future belongs to teams that connect insight to shelf execution
Across both perspectives, the message converges: the market is moving toward integrated planning, multi-lever optimization, and AI-accelerated decision cycles. But commercial outcomes still hinge on one thing—execution.
The next months won’t reward the teams that simply know more. They’ll reward the teams that decide faster, align better, tell a clearer retailer story, and deliver changes in-market—with the governance and confidence to stay focused in an uncertain world.